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Betting markets indicate increasing confidence that a spot Dogecoin (CRYPTO: DOGE) ETF could receive regulatory approval, with Polymarket data showing a 74 percent chance of approval by the end of 2025.
This represents a 37 percent increase since the inauguration of Donald Trump, suggesting rising optimism among speculators.
However, the likelihood of approval by July 31 remains significantly lower at 34 percent, despite a modest 13 percent gain.
Why It Matters: The growing interest in a Dogecoin ETF follows the Securities and Exchange Commission’s recent acknowledgment of Grayscale's applications for spot Dogecoin and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) ETFs.
This step marks a shift from the agency's past reluctance to consider cryptocurrency ETFs beyond Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH).
The decision to review these filings has been seen as an indication that regulatory attitudes may be evolving, though final approval is far from certain.
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What Experts Are Saying: Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas described the SEC's acknowledgment as a positive sign, indicating that the regulator may be more open to broader crypto investment products.
Fox Business journalist Eleanor Terrett also noted that the SEC appears more receptive than it was in December when exchanges withdrew Solana ETF applications due to a lack of regulatory engagement.
Despite growing optimism, regulatory hurdles remain.
Bloomberg's James Seyffart has suggested that legal disputes, such as the SEC's ongoing case against Ripple, could influence the approval of an XRP ETF.
While Dogecoin does not face similar legal challenges, broader regulatory uncertainty continues to affect the crypto ETF landscape.
Speaking at The Digital Assets Forum in London, Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matthew Hougan highlighted that meme coin ETFs require a highly liquid and globally distributed market with minimal insider influence.
Dogecoin's history and active community sets it apart, making an ETF approval possible, according to Hougan.
While it does not have fundamental value like Bitcoin, it is not simply a pump-and-dump scheme, Hogan stated.
However, he also dismissed the idea that a Dogecoin ETF approval would lead to approvals for other meme coins such as Shiba Inu (CRYPTO: SHIB).
He explained that approval decisions would likely be made on a case-by-case basis rather than opening the door to all similar assets.
Polymarket bettors are closely monitoring regulatory developments, particularly how the SEC responds to increasing demand for more crypto investment products.
The difference between the higher probability for Dogecoin ETF approval by year-end and the much lower likelihood by mid-year suggests that traders expect the regulatory process to take time.
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