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Fiscal Year 2025 Guidance
Guidance reflects the full year impact of approximately $150 million from lower-than-expected risk adjustment revenue. Medical margin guidance below includes approximately $70 million of negative prior period development reported year to date, and the full year expected impact from exited markets of $60 million.
Guidance ($M):
Year Ending December 31, 2025 | |||
| Low | High | ||
| Medicare Advantage Members1 | 503,000 | 506,000 | |
| ACO Model Members1,2 | 113,000 | 115,000 | |
| Total Members Live on Platform1 | 616,000 | 621,000 | |
| Avg. Medicare Advantage Members | 500,000 | 501,000 | |
| Total Revenues | $5,810 | $5,830 | |
| Medical Margin | ($5) | $15 | |
| Adjusted EBITDA3 | ($270) | ($245) | |
| Geography Entry Costs4 | $32 | $30 | |
| 1. | Membership reflects management's outlook for end of period. | |
| 2. | agilon's partnered ACO model entities are not consolidated within its financial results. | |
| 3. | Adjusted EBITDA contribution from ACO model entities is expected to be approximately $40-$45 million for fiscal year 2025. | |
| 4. | Geography Entry Costs represent the corresponding expense included in the low-end and high-end of management's outlook for Adjusted EBITDA. |
Posted In: AGL