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Bank of America Global Research analysts are bullish on copper, aluminium, gold and iron ore, and bearish on nickel and lithium.
A re-acceleration of the Chinese economy could push aluminium and copper prices higher into yearend, while gold prices could rise with the end of the Federal Reserve’s monetary tightening, analysts said in a note.
The assessment comes as iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (BATS:PICK) remains under significant pressure, even though nickel prices jumped to a record $100,000 per tonne.
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The Global Metals Thesis: The rally in base metals, triggered by news of China reopening, ran out of steam in the first quarter, analysts explained.
The two factors providing direction to the markets will be “the usual seasonal acceleration post Chinese New Year” and any strengthening of China's economy, the analyst stated.
Although copper and steel inventories “have been building around the Lunar New Year holidays,” raw materials have been “flowing out of warehouses of late,” suggesting an upturn in demand, they added.
The analysts see limited upside for nickel, with China building conversion capacity.
“Lithium has been extremely volatile, and we expect further downside to prices,” the analysts wrote. “There is no shortage in lithium deposits, so producers can increase supply — one reason we are bearish in 2023/24."
PICK Price Action: The NAV for iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF declined by 2.06% to close Tuesday’s trading session at $42.18.
Posted In: PICK
