Copper Stocks On Shaky Ground, JPMorgan Analysts Say: Tariffs, DeepSeek Cloud Outlook

Author: Surbhi Jain | February 03, 2025 09:29am

Copper investors looking for a lifeline may have to wait. JPMorgan analysts warn that a perfect storm of trade tariffs, geopolitical risks and AI disruption fears is weighing on copper-exposed stocks.

The firm is staying Underweight on Antofagasta PLC (OTCPK:ANFGF) and Boliden AB (OTCPK:BDNNY), while keeping Anglo American PLC (OTCQX:AAUKF) (OTCQX:NGLOY) at Neutral with a Negative Catalyst Watch.

US Tariffs Add More Pressure To Copper Miners

The latest blow? The U.S. administration's decision to impose tariffs—25% on Mexican and Canadian imports, 10% on Chinese goods and potential tariffs on the EU.

While not the extreme 60% tariffs some feared, the move is expected to hit EMEA mining and metals (M&M) stocks hard. JPMorgan remains cautious, saying the sector needs either a de-escalation in trade tensions or a fresh round of China stimulus to see any upside.

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AI, Geopolitical Risks Weigh On Copper Outlook

Meanwhile, AI-driven copper demand fears have surfaced with DeepSeek's latest tech developments. But JPMorgan isn't buying into the long-term disruption narrative. The analysts argue that data centers will continue fueling copper demand, projecting growth from 400kt in 2025 to 700kt by 2030—hardly a demand collapse.

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) adds another layer of risk. While the recent surge in violence is far from the country's copper-producing heartland, the unrest underscores the fragility of global supply. With the DRC now accounting for 13% of global copper output, any prolonged instability could rattle the market.

Where To Find Value In The Metals Space

For now, JPMorgan sees better value in EMEA gold miners like Fresnillo PLC (OTCPK:FNLPF), Hochschild Mining PLC (OTCQX:HCHDF) and AngloGold Ashanti PLC (NYSE:AU), as well as base metals picks Lundin Mining Corp (OTCPK:LUNMF) and Norsk Hydro ASA (OTCQX:NHYDY).

But for copper bulls, it may be a long wait for the clouds to clear.

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