Consensus Now At Three Rate Cuts This Year, Money Moving Into Silver

Author: The Arora Report | September 16, 2025 11:53am

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

Money Flowing Into Silver

Please click here for an enlarged chart of iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV).

Note the following:

• The chart of SLV is a monthly chart to give you a long term picture.
• The chart shows silver's breakout above the support zone.
• The chart shows September is on track to be the fifth consecutive positive month for SLV.
• The chart shows the move in silver is the biggest run up since 2020.
• The chart shows the trader magnet in SLV.
• RSI on the chart shows that silver is overbought.  Overbought ETFs are susceptible to pullbacks.
• The chart shows the buy zone where many are long silver.  As full disclosure, silver ETF SLV is in our portfolio.
• The gold to silver ratio, or simply put the number of ounces of silver needed to buy an ounce of gold, is currently 86.  The average over the last 20 years is 70. The gold to silver ratio is higher than it has been at historical points of the Fed easing.  In our analysis, silver is undervalued at this time relative to gold.
• Money is aggressively flowing into silver.  Money is also aggressively flowing into gold.  Gold futures have crossed $3700.  As full disclosure, gold ETF GLD is in our portfolios. 
• The plan is to start trade around positions in gold, silver, and precious metal miners on a pullback.  
• One of the reasons for money flowing into silver and gold is investors' expectations of rate cuts.  The Wall Street consensus is now that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 bps tomorrow and 25 bps twice more this year.  Some market participants are expecting a 50 bps rate cut tomorrow.
• The Senate confirmed Stephen Miran to the Federal Reserve Board.  He had been serving as the Chair of the White House Council of Economic Advisers.  Miran will attend the FOMC meeting that starts today.  This is creating positive sentiment in stocks and bonds.  In our analysis, the expectation is that Miran will push very hard for much bigger  interest rate cuts than the market currently anticipates.
• The Fed's interest rate decision will be announced tomorrow at 2pm ET followed by Fed Chair Powell's press conference at 2:30pm ET.
• We shared with you in yesterday's Morning Capsule:

President Trump is coming out against companies issuing quarterly earnings.  President Trump favors earnings releases every six months.  He indicated it will save money and also help companies take a longer term perspective.  In Europe, companies already report on a six month basis.

• The SEC has announced that it is prioritizing a proposal to permit companies to report earnings every six months.
• Prudent investors closely watch retail sales data as the U.S. economy is 70% consumer based.  Retail sales came stronger than expected.  Here is the latest retail sales data.
  • Headline retail sales came at 0.6% vs. 0.3% consensus.
  • Retail sales ex-auto came at 0.7% vs. 0.3% consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN), Alphabet Inc Class C (GOOG), Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META), and Tesla Inc (TSLA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Apple Inc (AAPL) and Microsoft Corp (MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in NVIDIA Corp (NVDA).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ.  Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil.  The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (GLD).  The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (SLV).  The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (USO).

Bitcoin

Bitcoin is range bound.

What To Do Now

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges.  The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive.  If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash.  A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash.  When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks.  High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less.  Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

Benzinga Disclaimer: This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga’s reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

Posted In: META SLV