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Veteran Wall Street investor Ed Yardeni confidently stated that we are still in a bull market, underpinned by several economic indicators and market behaviors that suggest continued growth potential.
Yardeni’s bullish stance is primarily supported by the prospect of the Federal Reserve adopting a less aggressive approach, alongside a positive earnings season that has outpaced expectations.
Crucially, he highlights the sharp drop in geopolitical risk premiums, evident in the significant decline in Brent crude oil prices, which fell from a recent peak of $91.17 to $82.96 on April 5. This price shift is a key indicator of reduced market volatility and investor anxiety.
Adding depth to this analysis, Yardeni points out that stock market sentiment indicators, traditionally seen as predictors of market mood, have normalized.
Recent data from Investors Intelligence and the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) show bull/bear ratios returning to historical averages, a condition Yardeni interprets as bullish from a contrarian perspective.
The interpretation of recent economic indicators also plays a crucial role in Yardeni’s outlook. Last week’s economic data, generally weaker than expected, paradoxically bolsters his bullish view as it may encourage the Federal Reserve to reintroduce market-stabilizing measures, such as the announcement last week of a slower-than-expected balance sheet runoff (quantitative tightening).
“Fed officials might start sounding less hawkish and more dovish,” he said.
This is underscored by the retreat of the two-year Treasury yield, which dipped from 5.04% on Tuesday to 4.81% by Friday, reflecting growing investor anticipation of Federal rate cuts.
“A couple of Fed rate cuts over the rest of the year are back on the table,” Yardeni stated.
Chart: 2-Year Yields Declined After Fed Meeting
Market performance further supports his perspective. The S&P 500 index, monitored via the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), rose 0.6% last week, marking its second consecutive week of gains after a three-week downturn. Particularly notable were the gains during the Thursday and Friday sessions, where the index surged by 0.9% and 1.2%, respectively.
Similarly, the tech-driven Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) posted a 1% overall increase for the week, with substantial gains of 1.3% and 2% on the same days, buoyed by investor reactions to a less hawkish Fed and cooler labor market statistics.
Looking ahead, the market faces a week that will be light on new data, with significant updates not due until Friday's release of the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index for May.
Image generated using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
