Fed Will Cut Interest Rates — But When? Most Investors Agree It Won't Be July, Bank Of America Says

Author: Anthony Noto | June 18, 2024 12:20pm

According to Bank of America‘s monthly global fund manager survey, investors are confident the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates at least twice in the next year.

What Happened: Here’s a breakdown of the findings, per Barron’s:

84% of investors anticipate a rate cut sometime in 2024.
33% of respondents foresee two rate cuts in the coming year.
31% predict three cuts.
14% expect more than three reductions.
8% believe the Fed will maintain current rates throughout the period.
39% of investors predict a rate cut in September.
16% expect a cut in November.
23% foresee a cut in December.
6% believe a rate cut will occur as early as July.

Why It Matters: The Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions significantly impact the economy, borrowing costs, interest rates and the stock market.

The Fed has maintained its benchmark policy rate in the 5.25%-5.5% range since July 2023 to counter inflationary pressures.

Its projections, released earlier this month, indicate the median forecast of all 19 U.S. central bankers was for a single interest rate cut this year.

When? Neel Kashkari, the President of the Minneapolis Federal Reserve, says “toward the end of the year.”

What’s Next: The next Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be held July 30-31.

At last month’s FOMC meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell pushed back on fears of rate hikes, deeming them as “unlikely.”

Price Action: The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was up 0.075% at last check Tuesday, while bonds, as gauged by the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (NASDAQ:TLT) were 0.52% higher.

Now Read: Wall Street Looks Jaded After Record Run As Traders Shift Focus To Retail Sales Data, Fed Speeches: ‘FOMO Still Rules The Market For AI-Related Stocks,’ Says Analyst

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