The Market Generally Performs Better In Early July Than Any Other Part Of The Year

Author: Hayden Buckfire | July 01, 2024 03:09pm

Americans spend the first half of July enjoying the July 4th holiday, vacations and spending time with family. While the dog days of July might not be amiable to those seeking cooler temperatures, they are historically kind to the stock market.

The Data: A post on X relayed data from Bank of America.

The first 10 trading days of July have seasonally been the strongest period for the S&P 500 since 1928.

The S&P 500 gained 1.5% on average in the first 10 trading days of July, rising 69% of the time. pic.twitter.com/miQYAsj9rc
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖 (@MikeZaccardi) June 30, 2024

According to the post, the first 10 trading days of July have historically been the strongest stretch for the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) index over the year.

The S&P 500 has returned 1.5% on average during the first half of July since 1928. If that 1.5% was sustained over the entire year, the market would return 36% annually.

Additionally, the S&P 500 has historically risen 69% of the time during this period.

The second-most successful period for the S&P 500 is the second half of December.

Past Five Years: The market has risen in the first half of July in each of the past five years, according to data from Yahoo Finance.

In 2019, the S&P 500 had a 1.37% return.
In 2020, the S&P 500 saw a 3.97% appreciation.
In 2021, the S&P 500 returned 1.37%.
In 2022, the S&P 500 saw a 2.28% gain.
In 2023, the S&P 500 rose 1.79%.

On average, the S&P returned 2.15% in the first 10 trading days of July.

Why it Matters: The U.S. market has recently rallied toward all-time highs, aided by gains from large technology stocks. While many remain bullish on the market’s future performance, others have cited “warning flags” that point to a potential market pullback.

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