AI Super Bulls Pay Attention To The Biggest Divergence Since 2001, TSLA Call Buyers Crushed

Author: The Arora Report | July 12, 2024 03:39pm

To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.

AI Super Bulls Pay Attention

Please click here for an enlarged chart of SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) which represents the benchmark stock market index S&P 500 (SPX) compared to Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ), iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM), VanEck Semiconductor ETF (NASDAQ:SMH), NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA), Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA), and KB Home (NYSE:KBH).

Note the following:

AI super bulls pay attention to the chart as it shows major divergences occurring yesterday.
The chart shows the small cap ETF IWM outperformed Nasdaq 100 ETF QQQ by 5.9%. This is the biggest such divergence since 2001.
The chart shows IWM outperformed S&P 500 ETF SPY by 4.56%. This is the biggest divergence since 2008. Prior to 2008, such divergence occurred in 1979.
Semiconductors have been driven higher and higher by the AI frenzy. The chart shows that small cap ETF IWM outperformed semiconductor ETF SMH by 7.77%.
The chart shows home builder KBH outperformed AI king NVDA by 17.49%.
Most strikingly, the chart shows that home builder KBH outperformed TSLA by 20.38%.
Home builder KBH, NVDA, and semiconductor ETF SMH are positions in The Arora Report Model Portfolios with very large unrealized gains. Small cap ETF IWM is in The Arora Report's ZYX Allocation Model Portfolio.
The trigger for these moves was lower than expected CPI as we shared with you in yesterday’s Morning Capsule. Smart money responded to lower than expected CPI by rotating out of AI stocks and into beneficiaries of a lower interest rate environment. It is important to remember that smart money holds very large positions. Smart money is not wholesale selling AI stocks. Smart money is just taking partial profits.
As we previously said, a fortune is to be made in AI over the next six years, but it is not going to be a straight line. At times, it will be treacherous. Yesterday was an indication of what can happen. In the future, yesterday’s type of activity can be on steroids.
The momo crowd had become extremely aggressive in buying TSLA calls. Yesterday, TSLA call buyers were crushed. It is important to not become extremely aggressive when there are sharp moves up.
After yesterday’s weak Consumer Price Index (CPI), Producer Price Index is higher than expected (PPI). Here are the details:
- Headline PPI came at 0.2% vs. 0.1% consensus.
- Core PPI came at 0.4% vs. 0.1% consensus.
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
Yesterday, we shared with you that earnings from Fastenal Co (NASDAQ:FAST) would give a good picture of infrastructure and construction activity. FAST reported earnings and revenues inline.
Among important bank earnings, JPMorgan Chase & Co (NYSE:JPM), Citigroup Inc (NYSE:C), and Wells Fargo & Co (NYSE:WFC) reported earnings and projections better than the consensus.

Magnificent Seven Money Flows

In the early trade, money flows are positive in Apple Inc (NASDAQ:AAPL).

In the early trade, money flows are neutral in Alphabet Inc Class C (NASDAQ:GOOG) and Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT).

In the early trade, money flows are negative in TSLA, NVDA, Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN), and Meta Platforms Inc (NASDAQ:META).

In the early trade, money flows are mixed in SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1 (NASDAQ:QQQ).

Momo Crowd And Smart Money In Stocks

Investors can gain an edge by knowing money flows in SPY and QQQ. Investors can get a bigger edge by knowing when smart money is buying stocks, gold, and oil. The most popular ETF for gold is SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD). The most popular ETF for silver is iShares Silver Trust (NYSE:SLV). The most popular ETF for oil is United States Oil ETF (NYSE:USO).

Bitcoin

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is range bound.

Protection Band And What To Do Now

It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.

Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider a protection band consisting of cash or Treasury bills or short-term tactical trades as well as short to medium term hedges and short term hedges. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.

You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.

A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.

It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.

Traditional 60/40 Portfolio

Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.

Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of seven year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.

The Arora Report is known for its accurate calls. The Arora Report correctly called the big artificial intelligence rally before anyone else, the new bull market of 2023, the bear market of 2022, new stock market highs right after the virus low in 2020, the virus drop in 2020, the DJIA rally to 30,000 when it was trading at 16,000, the start of a mega bull market in 2009, and the financial crash of 2008. Please click here to sign up for a free forever Generate Wealth Newsletter.

This article is from an unpaid external contributor. It does not represent Benzinga's reporting and has not been edited for content or accuracy.

Posted In: $BTC AAPL AMZN C FAST GLD GOOG IWM JPM KBH META MSFT NVDA QQQ SLV SMH SPY TSLA USO WFC