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An assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump has impacted the betting odds at sportsbooks for the 2024 presidential election.
What Happened: Already the favorite at many sportsbooks and prediction markets to win the election, Trump now has some of the shortest odds in the current election to return to the White House.
Here are the current betting odds for the 2024 election from Covers, using data from Bet365 and the betting odds from May, late June and early July.
| Candidate | July 15 Odds | July 5 Odds | June 29 Odds | May Odds |
| Donald Trump | -250 | -175 | -188 | -110 |
| Joe Biden | +500 | +800 | +350 | +130 |
| Kamala Harris | +800 | +400 | +2,200 | +4,000 |
| Michelle Obama | +1,800 | +1,200 | +2,200 | +1,400 |
| Gavin Newsom | +2,000 | +1,600 | +550 | +4,000 |
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | +5,000 | +5,000 | +6,000 | +2,500 |
At odds of -250, Trump is now listed with a 71.4% chance of winning the election according to Covers. This marks the shortest odds of any candidate to win the election since the current 2024 election cycle began.
A $100 bet on Trump to win the election would pay out a profit of $40 if he wins the 2024 election.
At BetMGM, which is a joint venture of Entain and MGM Resorts International (NYSE:MGM), Trump's odds to win the election also improved. After being the favorite at -190, Trump was listed with odds of -250 over the weekend according to BetMGM's John Ewing.
A $100 bet on President Joe Biden would currently pay out a profit of $500 if he can win re-election.
The most recent odds show Biden in second place at +500 and an implied 16.7% chance of winning the election. Just two weeks ago, Biden was passed by Vice President Kamala Harris falling to third place and +800 odds.
The Democratic Party is in potential crisis mode, as more members of Congress call on Biden to step aside from the race. Even though the current Commander-In-Chief insists on staying in the race, sportsbooks are listing several candidate options in case he reneges.
Odds to win the Democratic nomination show Biden as the favorite at -200 and an implied 67% chance of winning. Harris is listed at odds of +300. This comes two weeks after Harris was listed as the favorite at +100 to Biden's +200 odds to win the party's nomination.
Why It's Important: The 2024 presidential election is less than four months away. The Republican National Convention started Monday and runs through Thursday. The event will see Trump officially accept his party's nomination and also formally announce his vice-presidential pick.
Overall, the odds by party see the Republican Party favored at -250 and the Democratic Party the underdog at +200. Covers lists Biden as a potential best bet given the +200 odds of the party winning and the lower probability that he is replaced.
"At this point in the game, it's simply too late to change horses midstream for the Democrats. Unless there's a steep decline hi his health, don't expect Biden to be replaced with Harris, who has an even lower approval rating than he does," Covers betting analyst Rohit Ponnaiya writes.
On Prediction market Polymarket, Trump is the heavy betting favorite to win the 2024 election with odds of 71%. Trailing Trump are Biden at 17% and Harris at 6%.
For the Democratic nomination, Biden is the favorite on Polymarket at 70% with Harris second at 18%.
Polymarket users can make bets using cryptocurrency like USDC (CRYPTO: USDC), Polygon (CRYPTO: MATIC) and Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH). Winning wagers pay out $1 for each betting market.
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