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U.S. retail sales stagnated on a month-over-month basis in June 2024, declining from upwardly revised 0.3% growth in May to zero growth and matching the forecasted flat reading, according to preliminary estimates released Tuesday.
Fed futures indicate a 100% likelihood of a rate cut in September, according to the CME Group‘s FedWatch tool. Traders assign an 88% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut and a 12% probability to a 50-basis-point rate cut.
On Monday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell sounded more dovish than anticipated, suggesting that recent inflation reports show welcome progress toward the 2% target, increasing confidence that policymakers may be inclined to lower interest rates.
Powell also mentioned that an unexpected weakening in the U.S. labor market could be a factor prompting the Fed to take action.
Following the release of June retail sales data, the U.S. dollar strengthened and Treasury yields trimmed session losses.
The U.S. Dollar Index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), rose 0.2%.
Treasury yields were down by 3 basis points in the long end, with the 30-year yield hovering at 4.44%.
Futures on major U.S. averages traded higher during Tuesday premarket trading. Contracts on the S&P 500 were 0.4% higher by 8:40 a.m. ET.
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Posted In: UUP