Flat Retail Sales Report Shows 'A More Discerning Consumer' Keeps Spending, Economists Say

Author: Michael Juliano | July 16, 2024 10:37am

June’s U.S. retail sales report indicates that increasingly careful consumers are still opening their wallets, despite a stagnant reading on Tuesday, economists say.

U.S. retail sales remained flat in June, falling from an upwardly revised 0.3% growth in May to zero growth and matching the forecasted flat reading, according to preliminary estimates issued on Tuesday.

“A more discerning consumer continues to spend,” Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist for LPL Financial, said on Tuesday.

“This morning’s retail report — coupled with positive revisions — suggests that the all-important U.S. consumer, while increasingly discerning regarding purchases, continues to spend at a resilient pace.”

She also noted that Treasury yields inched higher on the favorable print, but equity futures remain positive.

“This report doesn’t negate expectations that the Fed will cut rates at its September 18 meeting, unless of course inflation-related data releases indicate an uptick in prices,” she said.

“Today’s report should be positive for markets as investors prefer the launch of a Fed easing cycle to begin with a still solid economic backdrop,” Krosby added.

Also Read: US Stocks Mixed; Retail Sales Increase 0.1% In May

June Retail Sales Report: Key Highlights

• On a year-over-year basis, retail sales rose by 2.3% in June, slowing from an upwardly revised 2.6% in May.
• Excluding motor vehicle and parts, retail sales increased by 0.4% month-over-month, up from 0.1% in May and topping the expected 0.1%, according to TradingEconomics data.
• Excluding gasoline, motor vehicle and parts, retail sales rose 0.8% month-over-month in June, beating expectations of 0.2% growth and advancing from an upwardly revised 0.3% gain in May.
• Among different spending categories, the largest monthly increases were seen in nonstore retailers, with a 1.9% rise, followed by building material, garden equipment and supplies dealers, up 1.4%.
• The largest monthly drops were seen in gasoline stations, down 3%, and motor vehicle and parts dealers, down 2%.

“Consumers are pulling back on some items but they still show signs of resilience,” Jeffrey Roach, chief economist for LPL Financial, said on Tuesday.

“Investors will get a better picture on the consumer in the upcoming personal income and spending release later this month. So far, those consumers who experienced strong real income growth continue to support the economy with their insatiable appetite to spend,” Roach added.

Price Action: Major retailers made modest gains on Tuesday morning. Walmart Inc. (NYSE:WMT) edged up 0.42% to $69.92, while Amazon.com, Inc. (NASDAQ:AMZN) gained 0.79% to $194.24 and The Home Depot Inc. (NYSE:HD) was up 1.81% to $365.03.

Exchange-traded funds that track Walmart, the world’s largest retailer, were up following the retail sales report. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (NYSE:XLP) gained 0.45% as the Vanguard Consumer Staples Index Fund ETF Shares (NYSE:VDC) gained 0.83%.

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• Retail Sales Preview: May Numbers Expected To Rise As Consumers ‘Feeling More Positive’

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