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2024 guidance
bp continues to expect both reported and underlying upstream production* to be slightly higher compared with 2023. Within this, bp continues to expect underlying production from oil production & operations to be higher and production from gas & low carbon energy to be lower.
In its customers business, bp continues to expect growth from convenience, including a full year contribution from TravelCenters of America; a stronger contribution from Castrol underpinned by volume growth in focus markets; and continued margin growth from bp pulse driven by higher energy sold. In addition, bp continues to expect fuels margins to remain sensitive to the cost of supply.
In products, bp continues to expect a lower level of industry refining margins relative to 2023, with realized margins impacted by narrower North American heavy crude oil differentials. bp now expects refinery turnaround activity to have a lower financial impact compared to 2023 reflecting the lower margin environment, with phasing of activity in 2024 heavily weighted towards the second half, with a higher impact in the fourth quarter.
bp continues to expect the other businesses & corporate underlying annual charge to be around $1.0 billion for 2024. The charge may vary from quarter to quarter. • bp continues to expect the depreciation, depletion and amortization to be slightly higher than 2023.
bp continues to expect the underlying ETR* for 2024 to be around 40% but it is sensitive to the impact that volatility in the current price environment may have on the geographical mix of the group’s profits and losses.
bp continues to expect capital expenditure* for 2024 to be around $16 billion, and continues to expect the phasing to be split broadly evenly between the first half and the second half.
bp continues to expect divestment and other proceeds of $2-3 billion in 2024, weighted towards the second half. Having realized $18.9 billion of divestment and other proceeds since the second quarter of 2020, bp continues to expect to reach $25 billion of divestment and other proceeds between the second half of 2020 and 2025.
bp continues to expect Gulf of Mexico settlement payments for the year to be around $1.2 billion pre-tax including $1.1 billion pre-tax paid during the second quarter. bp expects to update on our medium-term plans at the same time as our full year results in February 2025.
Posted In: BP
