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Rivian Stock Down 37% YTD: Can Q2 Results, Guidance, R2 Pre-Orders Kickstart Rally For EV Manufacturer?

Author: Chris Katje | August 05, 2024 12:41pm

Rivian Automotive (NASDAQ:RIVN) will likely share updates on vehicle production guidance, a Volkswagen joint venture and R2 reservations when the company reports second-quarter financial results after market close Tuesday August 6.

Earnings Estimates: Analysts expect Rivian to post second-quarter revenue of $1.13 billion according to data from Benzinga Pro.

The company reported revenue of $1.12 billion for 2023’s second quarter. It posted a total higher than this estimate in the last three quarters. Rivian has also beaten analysts' revenue estimates in five straight quarters and six of the last 10 quarters.

Analysts expect Rivian to post a loss of $1.21 per share in the second quarter, compared to the same timeframe last year when it reported a loss of $1.08 per share.

The company has beaten analysts' estimates for earnings per share in seven of the last 10 quarters, missing two straight quarters.

Rivian stock is down 37% year-to-date, as viewed in the Benzinga Pro chart below.

Read Also: Rivian Investor Day Highlights: CEO Scaringe Focuses On Amazon, Tesla Partnerships, Says EV Charging Network Will Open Up This Summer

What Analysts Are Saying: Rivian recently announced a $5 billion joint venture with Volkswagen, which drew mixed responses from analysts.

Piper Sandler analyst Alexander Potter said the joint venture was a "game-changer" as it can help Rivian's financials and be a key advantage.

"We think the JV validates Rivian's decision to design its own electrical architecture. It's not outwardly apparent to the average consumer, but in-house electronics represent a fundamental advantage for companies like Rivian and Tesla," Potter said.

The analyst has an Overweight rating and $21 price target on Rivian.

D.A. Davidson’s Michael Shlisky is skeptical following the joint venture and hopes to get more details.

The analyst reiterated a Neutral rating and raised the price target from $12 to $13 at the time.

"What are the financial and technological milestones that RIVN must meet in order to get the third and fourth billion? What will be the terms of the fifth billion?" Shlisky asked of the joint venture and potential $5 billion in funding.

Here are several recent analyst ratings on Rivian stock and their price targets:

  • Truist: Maintained Hold rating, raised price target from $13 to $16
  • Cantor Fitzgerald: Reiterated Overweight rating and $19 price target
  • Wells Fargo: Maintained Equal-Weight rating, raised price target from $10 to $18
  • Morgan Stanley: Maintained Overweight rating, raised price target from $13 to $17

Key Items to Watch: The upcoming R2 vehicle launch is expected in the first half of 2026.

Rivian previously announced second-quarter production and deliveries of 9,612 units and 13,790 units respectively. The figures were down on a year-over-year basis, while falling in-line with company estimates.

The EV company is guiding for full-year production of 57,000. Investors and analysts will be looking to see if that figure stays true and what 2025 guidance could look like.

The company recently said that they have over 100,000 reservations for the R2. The quarterly results and company commentary could share an update on that figure.

Delivery vans could be another key item to watch. Rivian is open to exploring other partnerships outside of an existing one with key shareholder Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN). Future delivery vehicle partnerships could be catalysts for Rivian.

More details on the Volkswagen joint venture will also likely be welcomed by analysts and investors in the quarterly results and conference call.

RIVN Price Action: Rivian shares are up 1% to $14.90 on Monday versus a 52-week trading range of $8.26 to $25.74. Rivian stock is down 43% over the last year.

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