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U.S. stocks are set for a mixed start on Thursday as concerns regarding the economy and incremental yen carry trade unwinding remain an undercurrent. Traders may be keen to receive the jobless claims report, given the recent sell-off kickstarted last Thursday, partly due to a spike in the data. Reactions to earnings news have been mixed. The CBOE Volatility Index, aka VIX, has resumed its climb above the 28 level.
With the uncertainty around the economy and rate trajectory abounding, in the absence of any major polarizing catalysts, the market could see back-and-forth movement in the near term.
| Futures | Performance (+/-) |
| Nasdaq 100 | +0.08% |
| S&P 500 | -0.02% |
| Dow | -0.18% |
| R2K | -0.32% |
Cues From Last Session:
The sell-off resumed Wednesday as early optimism regarding the worst being behind gave way to fears, taking the averages on a steady decline throughout the session. The positive start came after the Bank of Japan reassured that rate hikes are not imminent but techs dragged the market lower, as Super Micro Computer, Inc.’s (NASDAQ:SMCI) earnings miss weighed down on AI-levered stocks.
Reacting to Super Micros’ results, fund manager Louis Navellier said, “This has brought concerns regarding the profitability of building out AI networks despite the massive spending by the Mega Tech companies.”
The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite suffered the most as it pulled back to a three-month low, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 Index held above Monday’s closing level.
Small-caps also experienced a strong sell-off, with the Russell 2,000 settling at a one-month low.
| Index | Performance (+/) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | -1.05% | 16,195.81 |
| S&P 500 Index | -0.77% | 5,199.50 |
| Dow Industrials | -0.60% | 38,763.45 |
| Russell 2000 | -1.41% | 2,035.11 |
Mike Wilson, Morgan Stanley's CIO and Chief US Equity, said in a podcast on Monday that he expects the markets to remain vulnerable in the near term until “we get better growth data or more comfort from Fed on policy support.” The strategist, however, does neither of these would be forthcoming soon.
He expects support to come from cheap valuations, although he doesn’t believe stocks have become so cheap to set in motion a buying spree. The S&P 500 still traded at 20 times the forward 12-month earnings estimate, he said, adding that “things aren't actually cheap until we reach 17-18x, which is more than 10 percent away from where we are trading.”
Upcoming Economic Data:
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Stocks In Focus:
Commodities, Bonds And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were little changed after the advances in the previous two sessions, with a barrel of WTI-grade crude oil trading at the $75+ level. Gold futures were modestly higher. The 10-year Treasury note yield rose 5.4 points to 3.914%. Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) was little changed above the $57K level.
Most Asian markets fell on Thursday, as stocks in the region tracked the negative performance of Wall Street overnight. Japan’s Nikkei 225 average led the declines, although the Chinese and Hong Kong markets ended little changed.
European stocks are declining in early trading.
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