US Consumer Confidence Rebounds In August: 'Expectations Are Subject To Change' As Presidential Campaign Heats Up

Author: Piero Cingari | August 16, 2024 11:14am

Preliminary estimates from the University of Michigan reveal that U.S. consumer confidence rose slightly more than expected in August, recovering after hitting its lowest level since November 2023 in July.

This month’s consumer morale has been notably influenced by political developments, with sentiment increasing among Democrats and declining among Republicans.

Inflation expectations remain unchanged at elevated levels, still well above the Fed’s 2% target and the two-year pre-COVID range of 2.2%-2.6%.

University Of Michigan August Consumer Sentiment Report: Key Highlights

• The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index rose from 66.4 to 67.8, marking a 2.1% monthly surge and surpassing economist estimates – as tracked by TradingEconomics – of 66.9.
• The sub-index for consumer expectations increased from 68.8 to 72.1.
• The sub-index for current conditions fell from 62.7 to 60.9, hitting the lowest reading since December 2022.
• The year-ahead inflation expectations held at 2.9%. Long-term inflation expectations were also unchanged at 3%.

Economist Takeaways

“With election developments dominating headlines this month, sentiment for Democrats climbed 6% in the wake of Harris replacing Biden as the Democratic nominee for president. For Republicans, sentiment moved in the opposite direction, falling 5% this month,” said the University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers Director Joanne Hsu. 

The survey indicates that 41% of consumers view Harris as the stronger candidate for the economy, while 38% favor Trump.

Hsu highlighted that expectations for both personal finances and the five-year economic outlook have improved, with the latter reaching its highest level in four months.

The survey also found that some consumers believe their economic outlook would shift substantially if their preferred election outcome does not materialize.

“Hence, consumer expectations are subject to change as the presidential campaign comes into greater focus, even as consumers expect that inflation-still their top concern-will continue stabilizing,” Hsu added.

Market Reactions

Stocks rebounded following the report, recovering early-morning losses. By 10:30 a.m. in New York, the S&P 500, tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY), was flat, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100, tracked by the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ), was up 0.1%. If both indices close in the green on Friday, they will secure their seventh consecutive session of gains.

Gold, tracked by the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), rose 0.9% but pared gains slightly after the Michigan Consumer Sentiment data was released, cooling from earlier highs of $2,500 per ounce.

Treasury yields stabilized, and the dollar regained some ground, as positive consumer sentiment data reduced the likelihood of significant rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.

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