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Neil Irwin, Chief Economic Correspondent at Axios, has identified various economic “warning signs” but assures recession is not yet here.
What Happened: During CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Wednesday, Irwin highlighted the “warning signs” such as credit card and auto loan delinquencies, low hiring rate, and price sensitivity among consumers.
“Does that turn into recession? Not necessarily,” Irwin said.
“But it does tell you that something is cracking a little bit in the economy and the Fed, if they don’t start moving, we will definitely be behind the curve.”
Why It Matters: Irwin’s comments come amid a backdrop of concerning economic data. The U.S. economy saw a downward revision of 818,000 non-farm payrolls between April 2023 and March 2024, a 0.5% decrease in overall job gains for the year. This fall was greater than what major U.S. investment banks like Goldman Sachs (NYSE:GS) and JPMorgan Chase (NYSE:JPM) were expecting.
Furthermore, Goldman Sachs recently revised its U.S. recession forecast, reducing the probability of a recession within the next 12 months to 20%. This adjustment came just two weeks after the bank increased the odds from 15% to 25% following a weaker-than-expected July jobs report.
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Image via Federal Reserve
This story was generated using Benzinga Neuro and edited by Pooja Rajkumari
