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BofA Securities analyst John Murphy maintained a Buy rating on Ford Motor Co (NYSE:F) with a price target of $20.
The price target reflects an EV/EBITDAP multiple (EV/EBITDA adjusted for pension) of roughly 4x on Murphy’s 2025 estimates, considering the timing of the cycle and the company’s imminent execution of something analogous to the analyst’s Core to Future transition framework.
On Aug. 21, Ford announced several changes to its product plans that should help improve the profitability and capital efficiency of its Core to Future transition, Murphy highlighted.
Also Read: Ford Recalls 85,000 Explorer SUVs Over Engine Fire Risk, Adds to Recent Safety Concerns
Ford plans to launch a new electric commercial van in 2026 and two new electric pickup trucks in 2027 and leverage its hybrid technology in the following three-row SUVs. The analyst added that Ford’s new product plan would focus more on the company’s core strengths, notably commercial vans, mid- and large-sized pickup trucks and long-range SUVs.
According to the analyst, Ford’s investments in lowering the cost of its EV platforms will eventually make its next-generation EV trucks more profitable.
Murphy noted that Ford established the Skunkworks team to lower the cost curve of EVs.
Ford will incur a $400 million non-cash charge for the write-down of manufacturing assets associated with its previously planned electric three-row SUV and $1.5 billion in additional expenses and cash expenditures over time, the analyst said. Murphy cited Ford as saying that the annual capital expenditures related to pure EVs will decline from 40% to 30%.
The analyst said focusing on product cadence and practical incremental profit opportunities should position Ford to grow its earnings structurally.
Murphy added that the opportunities to strengthen the Core business should further bolster earnings, cash flow, and the balance sheet, enabling further investment.
F Price Action: Ford shares traded higher by 1.15% at $10.98 at last publication Thursday.
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