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In a recent interview, crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen drew parallels between Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) current market cycle and previous ones, forecasting a cautiously optimistic outlook for 2025.
What Happened: On the “Altcoin Daily” Youtube channel, Cowen emphasized the similarities between Bitcoin’s current trajectory and its behavior in 2019, noting a comparable 350% rally followed by a period of consolidation. He suggested that Bitcoin's recent performance aligns with historical four-year cycle patterns, despite some investors speculating about a potential "left translated peak."
Regarding Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), Cowen highlighted its historical pattern relative to Bitcoin, suggesting that ETH/BTC could be nearing a bottom. He speculated that Ethereum might experience a significant rebound in 2025, following a potential final drop.
Looking ahead, Cowen predicted that while Bitcoin could continue to rise, altcoins might outperform Bitcoin in 2025. He stated, "I think the bigger story next year will actually be while Bitcoin could go up, I think the altcoin market will likely outperform Bitcoin next year."
Why It Matters: Cowen also discussed the potential impact of Federal Reserve policy on crypto markets, suggesting that rate cuts could play a crucial role in driving the next phase of the cycle. He noted, "We need to get to the point where the Fed is willing to loosen up monetary policy."
The analyst pointed to several indicators supporting his view, including the relationship between Bitcoin and gold prices, and Bitcoin’s return on investment (ROI) from cycle lows. Cowen stated, "You can actually see that Bitcoin is essentially right where it always is around this time in the cycle."
While cautious about making specific price predictions, Cowen emphasized the importance of risk management and understanding market cycles. He advised investors to consider using risk metrics and to value their portfolios in terms of Bitcoin to navigate the crypto markets more effectively.
What’s Next: The influence of Bitcoin as an institutional asset class is expected to be thoroughly explored at Benzinga’s upcoming Future of Digital Assets event on Nov. 19.
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