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After three consecutive months of decline, the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation held steady in July, although it came in slightly below market forecasts.
The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by 2.5% in July 2024 compared to the same period last year, according to government data released Friday.
Alongside this inflation data, both personal spending and spending accelerated on a monthly basis, highlighting strong financial health among U.S. households.
The lower-than-expected July PCE report further strengthens the already high expectations that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in September.
Yet, the stronger-than-expected surge in both personal spending and personal income indicate robust consumer health, supporting ongoing economic growth and thus trimming hopes for large and aggressive rate cuts.
Market-implied probabilities on a 50-basis-point rate in September eased from 32% to 30% as per CME FedWatch.
The U.S dollar index, as tracked by the Invesco DB USD Index Bullish Fund ETF (NYSE:UUP), rose 0.2% after the release.
Futures on major U.S. equity indices soared in the premarket trading Friday. Contracts on the S&P 500 were 0.4% higher, while those on the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 rose 0.7%.
On Thursday, the Dow Jones index, as monitored through the SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (NYSE:DIA), hit fresh record highs.
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