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Apple Inc's (NASDAQ:AAPL) much-anticipated “It’s Glowtime” event on Sept. 9 has the tech world buzzing, but analysts are playing it cool. With expectations for an iPhone 16, updated Apple Watches and AirPods, investors are curious if this event will light up Apple's stock or leave it dim.
Goldman Sachs analyst Michael Ng remains optimistic about Apple’s long-term prospects, reiterating a Buy rating and a 12-month price target of $276, reflecting 23.9% upside expectations for the stock.
Apple stock generally underperforms the broad market on the day of iPhone announcements, the analyst said. While the Monday event may be “similarly immaterial to the stock price,” potential upside surprises could come from “the announcement of a price increase on iPhones,” “earlier-than-expected AI features and apps” and “better-than-expected carrier promotions,” he said.
Ng is particularly bullish on the new product innovation in the iPhone 16, expecting it to drive “upgrades and installed base growth,” with iPhone revenue growth forecasted to accelerate to 9% in both FY2025 and FY2026, driven by “AI features and new iPhone hardware form factors.”
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On the other hand, Piper Sandler analyst Matt Farrell takes a more cautious stance, maintaining a Neutral rating with a price target of $225.
Farrell expresses concern that “a lot of the near-term excitement is built into the stock at ~30x CY25E EPS.” The event could be significant if “Apple Intelligence can be the ‘star of the show,'” which would be an “incremental positive for the ‘super cycle’ thesis,” the analyst said.
Piper Sandler is wary of any major price increases for the iPhone 16, noting that “any major price increase this cycle would be viewed as a negative,” particularly as consumer spending shows signs of weakening, he said.
As Apple gears up for its Glowtime event, the consensus among analysts is that while the iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence have the potential to impress, there's caution in the air.
Ng's optimism hinges on the possibility of surprise announcements, while Farrell remains skeptical, focusing on potential headwinds like consumer spending and the lack of revolutionary changes.
Investors will be watching closely to see if Apple can truly shine or if this event will be more of a slow burn.
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Photo courtesy of Apple.
Posted In: AAPL
