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To gain an edge, this is what you need to know today.
Please click here for an enlarged chart of Coca-Cola Company stock (NYSE:KO) and Nvidia stock (NASDAQ:NVDA). KO chart is in the top pane. NVDA chart is in the bottom pane.
Note the following:
In the early trade, stocks are being sold on concern about the carry trade. In a carry trade, investors borrow in yen to invest in stocks in the U.S., primarily in AI stocks.
ISM Manufacturing Index will be released at 10am ET and may be market moving.
In the early trade, money flows are negative in Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN), Nvidia, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG), Meta (NASDAQ:META), Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA), and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL).
In the early trade, money flows are negative in S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) and Nasdaq 100 ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ).
The momo crowd is selling stocks in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade. (Smart money sold yesterday near the top.)
Note for new members: Smart money often sells into the strength generated by momo crowd buying and buys into the weakness generated by momo crowd selling. Over a long period of time, investors come out ahead by adopting smart money's ways. The exception is in a raging bull market – for very short term trades, consider following the momo crowd and not smart money.
The momo crowd is selling gold in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see gold and silver ratings.
The momo crowd is selling oil in the early trade. Smart money is inactive in the early trade.
For longer-term, please see oil ratings.
Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is seeing selling.
Our very, very short-term early stock market indicator is negative but can turn positive as the market is getting oversold in the very short term. This indicator, with a great track record, is popular among long term investors to stay in tune with the market and among short term traders to independently undertake quick trades.
Interest rates and bonds are range bound.
The dollar is weaker.
Trading futures is not recommended for most investors. The purpose of providing this information is to give an indication of the premarket activity that usually guides the activity when the market opens.
Gold futures are at $2519, silver futures are at $28.42, and oil futures are at $69.90.
S&P 500 futures are trading at 5523 as of this writing. S&P 500 futures resistance levels are 5622, 5748, and 5926: support levels are 5500, 5400, and 5256.
DJIA futures are down 4 points.
It is important for investors to look ahead and not in the rearview mirror.
Consider continuing to hold good, very long term, existing positions. Based on individual risk preference, consider holding 23% – 39% in cash or Treasury bills or allocated to short-term tactical trades; and short to medium-term hedges of 4% – 7%, and short term hedges of 4% – 7%. This is a good way to protect yourself and participate in the upside at the same time.
You can determine your protection bands by adding cash to hedges. The high band of the protection is appropriate for those who are older or conservative. The low band of the protection is appropriate for those who are younger or aggressive. If you do not hedge, the total cash level should be more than stated above but significantly less than cash plus hedges.
A protection band of 0% would be very bullish and would indicate full investment with 0% in cash. A protection band of 100% would be very bearish and would indicate a need for aggressive protection with cash and hedges or aggressive short selling.
It is worth reminding that you cannot take advantage of new upcoming opportunities if you are not holding enough cash. When adjusting hedge levels, consider adjusting partial stop quantities for stock positions (non ETF); consider using wider stops on remaining quantities and also allowing more room for high beta stocks. High beta stocks are the ones that move more than the market.
Probability based risk reward adjusted for inflation does not favor long duration strategic bond allocation at this time.
Those who want to stick to traditional 60% allocation to stocks and 40% to bonds may consider focusing on only high quality bonds and bonds of five year duration or less. Those willing to bring sophistication to their investing may consider using bond ETFs as tactical positions and not strategic positions at this time.
Posted In: $BTC AAPL AMZN GOOG KO META MSFT NVDA PEP QQQ SPY TSLA