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Wall Street breathed a sigh of relief Friday after the August jobs report signaled economic resilience, calming recession fears that had escalated following weak labor data in July and earlier this week.
The U.S. economy added 142,000 nonfarm payrolls in August, up from the previous month's downwardly revised 89,000 but falling short of the expected 160,000.
The unemployment rate dropped to 4.2%, meeting expectations, while wage growth showed strength. Average hourly earnings advanced by 0.4% to $35.21, surpassing the 0.3% forecast. On a year-over-year basis, wages rose 3.8%, beating July's 3.6% and the 3.7% consensus estimate.
Initial market reactions saw the dollar swing lower and traders increasingly bet on a potential 50-basis-point rate cut from the Federal Reserve, driven by the headline payrolls miss. A deeper dive into the report — which revealed stronger wage growth and a dip in unemployment — helped ease recession concerns.
Expectations for a 50-basis-point rate cut surged to 59% by 9 a.m. in New York before retreating to 45%, as per CME Group‘s FedWatch tool.
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Illustration created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.