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U.S. inflation in August hit its lowest annual rate since February 2021 at 2.5%, falling from 2.9% in July and below the expected 2.6%, yet the underlying story tells a more complicated tale.
Stripping out volatile food and energy prices, core inflation pressures remain stubborn at 3.2% as shelter costs surged at their fastest monthly pace since January 2024, fueling gains in the dollar and sending Treasury yields climbing.
Expectations for a hefty 50-basis-point rate cut at the Sept. 18 FOMC meeting plummeted to just 15%, down from 34% a day earlier, as per CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
Traders now increasingly anticipate a more measured 25-basis-point cut, as sticky core inflation—particularly in services—remains a key factor under close watch by the Fed.
Energy goods and services indices saw notable monthly drops, helping to ease overall price pressures. Gasoline prices fell 0.6% month-over-month in August after holding steady in July, while electricity declined 0.7% and utility bills for piped gas services dropped 1.9%.
The mixed August inflation report and the corresponding drop in investor expectation for a larger rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the September meeting triggered the following reactions in major assets:
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Image created using artificial intelligence via Midjourney.
