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U.S. stock futures tumbled on Friday in premarket hours after a mixed Thursday. All four index futures slipped in trade.
While the S&P 500 index is on its way to registering a robust 20% plus return for the second consecutive year in 2024 it ended lower on the second day of the Santa rally after advancing 1.1% on Christmas Eve. Analysts say that the full ‘Santa Claus Rally’ has never been lower.
The 10-year and two-year Treasury notes yielded 4.61% and 4.33%, respectively. The probability of having no change in the interest rates for the upcoming Jan. 31, 2025 decision was at 89.3%, down from 91.4% a week ago, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Nasdaq 100 | -0.42% |
| S&P 500 | -0.43% |
| Dow Jones | -0.41% |
| Russell 2000 | -0.43% |
In premarket trading on Friday, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) was up 0.04% to $601.34 and the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ) fell 0.36% to $527.70, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Cues From The Last Session
U.S. stock markets closed mixed on Thursday, following a Christmas break. The Dow Jones Industrial Average edged higher, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite dipped slightly.
Month-to-date performance varied across indices. The Nasdaq significantly outperformed, driven by strong gains in Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL), while the Dow Jones experienced a decline of around 3.5%. The S&P 500 saw a modest gain of 0.1%.
Economic data released on Thursday showed a slight decrease in initial jobless claims, coming in below market expectations. This suggests a continued strong labor market.
Sector performance was mixed. Healthcare, financial, and real estate sectors led gains, while consumer discretionary and communication services sectors underperformed.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.05% | 20,020.36 |
| S&P 500 | -0.04% | 6,037.59 |
| Dow Jones | 0.07% | 43,325.80 |
| Russell 2000 | 0.90% | 2,280.19 |
Insights From Analysts
According to the chief market strategist at Carson Research, Ryan Detrick, the final six days of the ‘Santa Claus Rally’ has been higher five out of seven, with two small losses. But even these six days have been higher by 1.7% on average.
Mapping the data from 1950, Detrick summarized that the S&P 500 has had a 20% plus return 22 times and a negative return annual return or 21 times in total.
According to Charlie Bilello, the chief market strategist at Creative Planning the S&P 500’s 57 all-time highs in 2024 was the fifth highest in its history.
Louis Navellier of Navellier & Associates in his daily market commentary said, “The Fed may be turning its attention to inflation, according to Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's comments, but if continuing unemployment claims continue to rise, it will likely get the Fed's attention and encourage more key interest rate cuts.”
“Continuing unemployment claims rose to 1.91 million in the latest week, which represents the highest level in more than three years. New unemployment claims came in at 219,000, which was a bit lower than the four-week moving average of 226,500,” he added.
See Also: How To Trade Futures
Upcoming Economic Data
Only a few data points remain to be released in this truncated week that will help investors determine the future course of action.
Stocks In Focus:
Commodities, Gold And Global Equity Markets:
Crude oil futures were higher in the early New York session by 0.46% to hover around $69.94 per barrel.
The gold spot index was down by 0.48% to $2,641.11 per ounce. The Dollar Index was up 0.01% to 108.138 level.
Asian markets were mixed on Friday, as Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, China’s CSI 300, and South Korea’s Kospi index declined. Whereas, Japan’s Nikkei 225, Australia’s ASX 200, and India’s S&P BSE Sensex index rose. Most European markets traded higher.
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