Ryanair Maintains FY26 Traffic Forecast At 3% Despite Boeing Delays And Tariff Risks; PAT Guidance Still Unclear

Author: Benzinga Newsdesk | July 21, 2025 02:19am

OUTLOOK 

FY26 traffic remains on track to grow just 3% to 206m passengers, due to heavily delayed Boeing deliveries. As previously guided, we expect modest unit cost inflation in FY26 as the delivery of more B737 Gamechangers, advantageous fuel hedging and effective cost control across our Group airlines helps offset increased ATC charges and higher enviro. costs. While S.25 travel demand is strong, Q2 fare increases will be lower than in Q1 (which benefitted from a full Easter holiday in April and weak prior-year comps) and we now expect to recover almost all of the 7% fare decline we suffered in PY Q2. The final H1 outcome is, however, heavily dependent on the strength of close-in Aug. and Sept. bookings. As is normal at this time of year, we have zero H2 visibility (where PY fare comps normalise and last years modest delivery delay compensation rolls off). 

It remains too early to provide meaningful FY26 PAT guidance. We do, however, cautiously expect to recover almost all of last years 7% full-year fare decline, which should lead to reasonable net profit growth in FY26. The final FY26 outcome remains heavily exposed to adverse external developments, incl. the risk of tariff wars, macro-economic shocks, conflict escalation in the Middle East and Ukraine and European ATC strikes, mismanagement & short staffing."

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