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On Thursday, Eli Lilly and Co.’s (NYSE:LLY) weight loss rival Novo Nordisk A/S (NYSE:NVO), along with smaller firms, Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (NASDAQ:TERN), Viking Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:VKTX), and Structure Therapeutics Inc. (NASDAQ:GPCR) are trading higher.
Lilly released topline data from the Phase 3 ATTAIN-1 trial evaluating orforglipron that showed an average weight loss of 12.4% (27.3 lbs) compared to 0.9% (2.2 lbs) with placebo, below the 15% expectations. Orforglipron could be the first small-molecule weight-loss pill if it launches in 2026.
William Blair analysts described this as a “once-in-a-blue-moon” miss for Lilly’s otherwise dominant obesity franchise. They highlighted that orforglipron’s 9.1% placebo-adjusted weight loss at the 36 mg dose underperformed compared to weekly subcutaneous Wegovy, which delivers 12–13% weight loss.
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Additionally, gastrointestinal side effects were comparable to Wegovy, but orforglipron had a higher treatment discontinuation rate (5.1–10.3% vs. 7.0% for Wegovy, 2.6% for placebo).
They also noted early plateauing of weight loss and persistent side effects as potential liabilities for orforglipron, as previously flagged during the ACHIEVE-1 presentation at the American Diabetes Association.
This rare underperformance opens the door for smaller biopharma competitors, analyst Andy Hsieh of William Blair noted.
“From a stock perspective, we believe that Eli Lilly’s rare miss from its otherwise impenetrable obesity franchise could create an opening for smaller competitors,” he added.
Novo Nordisk’s oral semaglutide 25 mg achieved a 16.6% weight loss vs. a 2.7% reduction with placebo after 68 weeks. CagriSema achieved a weight loss of 22.7% after 68 weeks in one study and 15.7% in another.
Viking is expected to report Phase 2 VENTURE-Oral results of the oral tablet formulation of VK2735 in obesity in the second half of 2025. Analyst Hsieh expects the data readout could be as early as later this month.
Results from a 28-day Phase 1 multiple ascending dose trial of VK2735 in healthy volunteers with a BMI ≥30 demonstrated dose-dependent reductions in mean body weight from baseline, ranging up to 8.2%.
Persistent weight loss effects were observed at follow-up visits through Day 57, ranging up to 8.3% from baseline, four weeks after the last dose of VK2735 was administered.
Structure Therapeutics, which is advancing the oral small molecule aleniglipron that resembles orforglipron but with a shorter half-life, is expected to report results from two Phase 2 studies, ACCESS and ACCESS II, in the fourth quarter.
Structure Therapeutics is also conducting three new aleniglipron clinical studies as planned, which will generate additional data to competitively position aleniglipron and further support the design of the Phase 3 program.
In June 2024, Structure Therapeutics unveiled 12-week topline obesity data from its Phase 2a study of GSBR-1290.
In the Phase 2a obesity study, GSBR-1290 demonstrated a clinically meaningful and statistically significant placebo-adjusted mean decrease in weight of 6.2% at 12 weeks.
Tern is developing TERN-601, an oral glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonist (GLP1-RA) for obesity. The Phase 2 FALCON trial enrollment completed in the second quarter of 2025 and topline 12-week data is expected in the early fourth quarter of 2025.
Phase 1 trial data in healthy subjects showed TERN-601 was well tolerated and demonstrated dose-dependent, statistically significant placebo-adjusted mean weight loss across all three doses evaluated in the 28-day MAD study, with maximum placebo-adjusted mean weight loss of 4.9% at the highest dose of 740 mg QD.
Price Action: VKTX stock is up 11.2% at $35.46, TERN stock is up 3.70% at $5.88, NVO stock is up 7.47% at $48.79, and GPCR stock is up 7.36% at $17.58 at last check Thursday.
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