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Gold prices surged to a four-month high on Monday, buoyed by expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut and safe-haven demand.
The rally coincides with a landmark shift in global finance flagged by prominent economist Mohamed A. El-Erian, showing central banks’ direct holdings of gold now exceed their U.S. Treasury holdings as a percentage of foreign reserves for the first time in nearly three decades.
Spot gold climbed to $3,489.78 an ounce, its highest point since mid-April, marking a fifth consecutive day of gains.
The immediate price catalyst is growing market conviction that the Federal Reserve will implement a rate cut this month. Lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion.
Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade tariffs and political pressure on the Fed have enhanced gold’s appeal as a safe-haven asset for investors.
Underpinning this market rally is a deeper, structural trend highlighted by El-Erian. In a post on the social media platform X, he shared a chart indicating that, for the first time since 1996, global central banks’ allocation to gold in their international reserves has surpassed their allocation to U.S. Treasuries.
The chart illustrates a multi-year trend of central banks steadily accumulating gold while gradually decreasing their share of U.S. government debt.
This strategic pivot by monetary authorities reflects a broader global movement towards diversification and de-dollarization.
Otavio (Tavi) Costa, a macro strategist at Crescat Capital, suggests that geopolitical instability and a desire to reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar are key drivers behind this shift.
This sustained and large-scale buying from the official sector provides a strong fundamental support for the gold price, complementing the short-term speculative interest. The trend signals a potential long-term rebalancing in the global financial system, with significant implications for the future roles of both gold and the U.S. dollar as reserve assets.
Gold Spot US Dollar rose 0.77% to hover around $3,474.71 per ounce, as of the publication of this article. Its last record high stood at $3,500.33 per ounce. The price of the precious yellow metal has surged 21.55% over the last six months and 39.15% over the last year.
Here is a list of a few gold ETFs that investors can consider as the central banks ramp up their gold reserves.
| Gold ETFs | YTD Performance | One Year Performance |
| Franklin Responsibly Sourced Gold ETF (NYSE:FGDL) | 29.70% | 38.19% |
| Goldman Sachs Physical Gold ETF (BATS:AAAU) | 29.71% | 38.28% |
| GraniteShares Gold Trust (NYSE:BAR) | 29.84% | 38.50% |
| VanEck Merk Gold ETF (NYSE:OUNZ) | 29.61% | 38.28% |
| SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) | 29.60% | 38.12% |
| iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:IAU) | 29.71% | 38.25% |
| SPDR Gold MiniShares Trust (NYSE:GLDM) | 29.82% | 38.52% |
| abrdn Physical Gold Shares ETF (NYSE:SGOL) | 29.74% | 38.35% |
| iShares Gold Trust Micro (NYSE:IAUM) | 29.86% | 38.59% |
| Invesco DB Precious Metals Fund (NYSE:DBP) | 29.63% | 33.16% |
The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.22% lower at the 97.5580 level. The dollar has declined by 10.11% on a year-to-date basis.
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, fell on Friday. The SPY was down 0.60% at $645.05, while the QQQ declined 1.16% to $570.40, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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Posted In: AAAU BAR DBP FGDL GLD GLDM IAU IAUM OUNZ QQQ SGOL SPY
