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Editor’s Note: The future prices of benchmark tracking ETFs, the lede, and the latest economic releases were updated in the story.
U.S. stock futures advanced on Thursday following Wednesday’s mixed moves. Futures of major benchmark indices were higher.
Initial jobless claims fell to 231,000 in the week ending Sept. 11, down from the previous 264,000 claims last week and below the 241,000 consensus forecast.
Based on the September Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey, regional manufacturing activity has shown overall expansion. The survey’s key indicators for current general activity, new orders, and shipments all saw increases, with general activity and new orders moving into positive territory. The diffusion index for current general activity rose 24 points to 23.2 in September, its highest reading since January
Meanwhile, Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) announced that it’s investing $5 billion in Intel Inc. (NASDAQ:ITC) and it will collaborate with the struggling semiconductor company on products, pushing the stocks of both the firms higher in premarket.
A 25-basis-point rate cut was delivered by the Federal Reserve, with Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaling more easing could be coming, as a part of “risk management” with the shift partly driven by a cooling labor market and growing downside risks to employment.
The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 4.05% and the two-year bond was at 3.52%. The CME Group's FedWatch tool‘s projections show markets pricing an 89.8% likelihood of the Federal Reserve cutting the current interest rates in its October meeting.
| Futures | Change (+/-) |
| Dow Jones | 0.75% |
| S&P 500 | 0.89% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 1.06% |
| Russell 2000 | 1.50% |
The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, rose in premarket on Thursday. The SPY was up 0.76% at $664.22, while the QQQ advanced 1.15% to $596.77, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Most sectors on the S&P 500 closed positively on Wednesday, with consumer staples, financial, and materials stocks posting the biggest gains. However, information technology and industrials bucked the market trend, closing lower. This contributed to a mixed settlement for U.S. stocks.
Among individual companies, General Mills Inc. (NYSE:GIS) reported fiscal 2026 first-quarter results that came in slightly ahead of Wall Street expectations. In contrast, Manchester United PLC (NYSE:MANU) shares fell more than 6% on Wednesday after the company reported mixed fourth-quarter financial results.
Economic reports showed U.S. housing starts dipping 8.5% month-over-month to an annual rate of 1.307 million units in August, missing market estimates of 1.37 million and following a revised 1.429 million in the previous month. Building permits also declined by 3.7% to an annualized rate of 1.312 million in August.
The Dow Jones index ended 260 points or 0.57% higher at 46,018.32, whereas the S&P 500 index fell 0.097% to 6,600.35. Nasdaq Composite declined 0.33% to 22,261.33, and the small-cap gauge, Russell 2000, gained 0.18% to end at 2,407.34.
| Index | Performance (+/-) | Value |
| Nasdaq Composite | -0.33% | 22,261.33 |
| S&P 500 | -0.097% | 6,600.35 |
| Dow Jones | 0.57% | 46,018.32 |
| Russell 2000 | 0.18% | 2,407.34 |
As the Federal Reserve enters the second year of its monetary easing, which began in September 2024, history suggests the S&P 500 could see substantial growth. On average, the index has returned over 16% in the second year of rate-cutting cycles. However, this optimistic outlook depends entirely on the U.S. economy avoiding a recession.
According to Jeff Buchbinder, Chief Equity Strategist at LPL Financial, "Year two of rate-cutting cycles has historically delivered solid gains for stocks — provided the economy avoids recession."
The first year of this cycle, which started with a 0.5% cut on September 18, 2024, has already been strong. The S&P 500 posted a return of over 17% through September 18, 2025, easily beating the historical first-year average of 9.6%. The Fed continued easing policy on Wednesday with another quarter-point rate reduction.
Analysis of the last 50 years shows a clear trend of positive stock market performance when the Fed cuts rates. While year one returns averaged 9.6%, year two has historically performed even better, with an average gain of 16.4%.
"We would happily accept these returns over the next twelve months," Buchbinder said, adding that current "lofty valuations" might moderate future gains.
Despite a positive outlook, Buchbinder warns that the macroeconomic situation is "far from assured." Several potential risks could derail the S&P 500's progress, including:
Ultimately, the consensus view is that "Markets like rate cuts that are a luxury, not an emergency." This suggests the current environment is favorable for stocks, so long as the risk of a recession remains low.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve’s latest economic projections revealed a surprisingly shallow path for interest rate cuts in 2026, signaling that the policy will remain restrictive as the central bank contends with a resilient economy and sticky inflation. –
The committee’s median forecast for the federal funds rate shows a decline to only 3.4% by the end of 2026, a mere 0.2 percentage point drop from the 3.6% projected for year-end 2025.
While 20 bps is less than a standard cut of 25 bps, this indicates that the median FOMC participant does not foresee a clear case for even one full rate reduction over the course of 2026.
The conflicting signals and internal divisions left many observers struggling to find a coherent message.
Anna Wong, Chief U.S. Economist for Bloomberg, stated, "I have not seen a meeting with so much contradictions". The wide dispersion of views suggests the Fed's path for 2026 remains highly uncertain and will be subject to contentious debate.
See Also: How to Trade Futures
Here's what investors will be keeping an eye on Thursday;
Crude oil futures were trading lower in the early New York session by 0.05% to hover around $64.02 per barrel.
Gold Spot US Dollar fell 0.09% to hover around $3,656.70 per ounce. Its last record high stood at $3,707.7 per ounce. The U.S. Dollar Index spot was 0.15% higher at the 97.0190 level.
Asian markets closed mixed on Thursday, as China’s CSI 300, Hong Kong's Hang Seng, and Australia's ASX 200 indices fell. On the other hand, India’s S&P BSE Sensex, Japan's Nikkei 225, and South Korea's Kospi indices rose. European markets were higher in early trade.
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