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American Tower’s (NYSE:AMT) growth outlook remains tied to muted carrier activity, with T-Mobile US (NASDAQ:TMUS) driving colocations to meet Federal Communications Commission (FCC) buildout rules while Verizon (NYSE:VZ) and AT&T (NYSE:T) continue network upgrades that bring only incremental leasing revenue.
Colocation activity has picked up, but American Tower faces pressure as Verizon launches a high-rent relocation program, targeting its largest tower landlord ahead of a key master lease expiration.
RBC Capital analyst Jonathan Atkin downgraded American Tower’s stock rating from Outperform to Sector Perform and lowered the price forecast from $260 to $220.
Also Read: American Tower Sees Slightly Weaker US Growth As International Performance Strengthens
Atkin reported that carrier activity across the three major U.S. tower companies remained muted through the third quarter of 2025.
The analyst said no meaningful changes emerged that would alter current expectations for site rental revenue.
He highlighted T-Mobile as the most active carrier, pushing colocations and amendments to meet its FCC-mandated buildout requirements by the first quarter of 2026.
Verizon, Atkin noted, continues to focus on mid-band spectrum coverage and capacity, while AT&T appears on schedule, or slightly ahead, with its network modernization, including the swap-out of Nokia (NYSE:NOK) equipment for Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERIC) gear.
The analyst added that this initiative offers only incremental benefits to tower leasing revenues.
According to commentary from American Tower and SBA Communications (NASDAQ:SBAC), colocation activity picked up in the third quarter, he said.
Crown Castle (NYSE:CCI), meanwhile, reported a steadier mix of amendments and colocations, with amendments outweighing colocations by volume.
Atkin expects fixed wireless access deployments to grow more capital-intensive over time, driving further network densification and cell splits, which should lift colocation revenues.
The analyst also noted that Verizon has recently launched a high-rent relocation program. Because American Tower is Verizon’s largest tower landlord and faces the expiration of its master lease agreement with Verizon within two years, Atkin sees American Tower as the primary target of this initiative.
The analyst slightly raised its financial estimates. He now projects American Tower’s 2025 revenue and adjusted EBITDA at $10.523 billion and $7.066 billion, respectively (compared with prior estimates of $10.508 billion and $7.058 billion).
For 2026, he forecasts $11.071 billion in revenue and $7.459 billion in EBITDA, modestly higher than his previous outlook. Atkin expects AFFO per share of $10.63 in 2025 and $11.65 in 2026 (above the consensus of $10.57 and $11.35).
Despite these increases, Atkin lowered his price forecast on American Tower. He explained that the new valuation better reflects historical tower and datacenter REIT multiples in the current rate environment, along with ongoing carrier spending constraints following spectrum acquisitions. Adjustments also reflect contributions from DISH leases.
Price Action: AMT shares were trading lower by 1.01% to $191.38 at last check Thursday.
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