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President Donald Trump's latest warning to "terminate business with China having to do with cooking oil, and other elements of trade" may sound narrow, but markets know better — food is politics, and politics moves capital. By calling China's soybean snub an "Economically Hostile Act," investors are starting to eye a repeat of 2018's tariff trade, where American agribusiness quietly became the unexpected winner.
Trump's policies could accelerate what traders are calling Decoupling 2.0 — a shift toward U.S.-based food production, agricultural technology, and fertilizer independence.
That sets the stage for potential upside in Deere & Co. (NYSE:DE), whose precision-farming equipment would benefit from domestic expansion, and Corteva (NYSE:CTVA), the seed and crop protection firm already positioning for global supply diversification.
Fertilizer giants CF Industries (NYSE:CF) and Nutrien Ltd. (NYSE:NTR) could see renewed momentum if Washington incentivizes domestic inputs to offset Chinese supply risk.
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Although consumer-facing food producers like Archer-Daniels-Midland Co. (NYSE:ADM) and Bunge Global SA (NYSE:BG) may need to adapt quickly to shifting trade routes, higher volatility in soybean and vegetable oil prices could benefit them. Renewable fuel players like Chevron Corp (NYSE:CVX) and Valero Energy Corp (NYSE:VLO), which use cooking oil as feedstock for renewable diesel, could see supply tightness translate into margin opportunities.
For investors, the trade setup looks asymmetric. U.S. Ag-Tech and fertilizer producers stand to gain from nationalist policy tailwinds, while Chinese-linked suppliers and low-margin processors could take the hit.
As Trump puts it, "retribution" may not come through tariffs alone — but by reshaping where America grows, refines, and fuels its food economy.
If Trump's rhetoric turns into actionable policy, the next trade war won't be fought over semiconductors or steel — it'll start in America's farm belt and ripple all the way to Wall Street.
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