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Prediction market Polymarket now gives higher odds of confirmed alien existence this year than Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) reaching $200,000, a data quirk that's sparking debate across crypto and prediction circles.
According to Polymarket data, traders assign a 6% probability that the United States confirms extraterrestrial life in 2025, versus just 5% odds that Bitcoin hits $200,000 before year-end.
In other words, the market currently believes an alien sighting is slightly more plausible than a doubling in Bitcoin's price over the next ten weeks.
Polymarket's "alien confirmation" contract has attracted nearly $4 million in trading volume, with prices trending lower since midyear.
It's the only market where Elon Musk, Satoshi Nakamoto, and little green men compete for the same headline.
Bitcoin trades near $108,000, hovering above its $104,000–$105,000 demand zone after slipping below major EMAs clustered around $113,700–$114,400.
The breakdown from $126,000 earlier this month pushed price under both its ascending trendline and long-term structural support, leaving the chart vulnerable to a retest of $96,000–$92,000.
The RSI at 36 shows mildly oversold conditions, but selling momentum remains intact.
For bulls, reclaiming the $113,000–$114,500 resistance zone is key to restoring any near-term optimism.
BTC Netflows (Source: Coinglass)
Fresh exchange data suggests outflows remain heavy but are showing signs of moderation.
On October 18, netflows recorded a $46.05 million outflow, smaller than the billion-dollar wave seen earlier in the week, according to Coinglass.
The figure comes after nearly $1.6 billion in cumulative outflows across five sessions, a sequence that pressured Bitcoin into its current consolidation zone.
ETF volumes have cooled, and funding rates remain slightly negative, reinforcing defensive positioning across derivatives markets.
Polymarket's alien-versus-Bitcoin odds show how speculation thrives when fundamentals weaken.
This bizarre pricing highlights traders' growing preference for narratives over numbers.
It reveals a market psychology where disbelief in assets rivals belief in the extraordinary.
Such sentiment extremes often precede major pivots in both risk appetite and asset direction.
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Image: Shutterstock
Posted In: $BTC
