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JP Morgan analyst Reginald L. Smith expressed views about bitcoin miners, which are expected to report third-quarter 2025 results over the next few weeks.
The five bitcoin mining and data center operators in the analyst coverage set to report third-quarter 2025 results over the next few weeks are Riot Platforms, Inc. (NASDAQ:RIOT), Cipher Mining Inc. (NASDAQ:CIFR), MARA Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ:MARA), and IREN Limited (NASDAQ:IREN).
The analyst writes that their high-performance computing (HPC) DCF model indicates the market may be pricing in roughly 5 GW of HPC deals across their coverage.
This includes in-the-money convertible bonds, representing about 70% of approved capacity.
Smith says that RIOT appears to have the most upside, with the market pricing in only ~40% of its approved 1.8 GW power capacity converting to HPC colocation.
Meanwhile, CIFR is valued as if its full approved power portfolio is converted, adds the analyst.
Using the financial terms of recent deals and assumptions on capex, leverage, funding costs, and discount rates, the analyst’s DCF analysis values equity in high-quality HPC colocation deals at approximately $4–$9 million per gross MW, and Cloud Services at up to $12 million per MW, based on four GPU refresh cycles.
Using a "modified" equity value, the analyst ascertained that the four miners pursuing HPC colocation appear priced as if ~70% of approved power is secured.
IREN leads at ~80%, Cipher at 100%, and RIOT at ~40% of approved capacity, adds the analyst.
The analyst notes that overall daily revenue per EH/s rose 7% sequentially in the third quarter, boosting potential mining revenue and EBITDA.
For the quarter, Smith estimates annualized cash operating profits of ~$600 million for IREN, ~$415 million for CleanSpark, Inc. (NASDAQ:CLSK), ~$245 million for MARA, ~$200 million for RIOT, and ~$125 million for CIFR, supporting future HPC buildouts.
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