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Advanced Micro Devices Inc. (NASDAQ:AMD) is heading into its third-quarter earnings report with powerful seasonal tailwinds, a surging AI narrative, and fresh Wall Street optimism that could set the stage for a breakout November.
The chipmaker will report third-quarter earnings on Tuesday, with median analyst estimates from Benzinga Pro calling for earnings of $1.16 per share on $8.74 billion in revenue.
That would mark a 26% jump in EPS from the $0.92 reported a year ago, and a 28% increase in revenue from $6.72 billion.
The surge could reflects AMD's growing traction in the AI chip space, where its latest accelerators are gaining ground among major enterprise players.
AMD holds the title as the best-performing S&P 500 stock in November, and the numbers make a compelling case.
Over the past decade, shares have posted an average return of 16.8% for the month, finishing higher in eight out of the last ten years. The standout was November 2021, when the stock soared 31.7%.
Even when expanding the time frame, AMD's seasonal strength remains intact—since 1995, the stock has averaged a 12.07% gain in November with a 67% win rate.
Excluding 2024's 4.79% decline, AMD logged double-digit November gains every year from 2018 through 2023.
Notably, losses greater than 5% have occurred only five times in the past 30 years, with the steepest drops—both 32.6%—recorded during the bear markets of 2000 and 2008.
| Year | AMD November Return |
|---|---|
| 1995 | -12.77% |
| 1996 | 36.62% |
| 1997 | -5.16% |
| 1998 | 22.71% |
| 1999 | 42.59% |
| 2000 | -32.60% |
| 2001 | 37.80% |
| 2002 | 38.44% |
| 2003 | 18.22% |
| 2004 | 26.52% |
| 2005 | 12.75% |
| 2006 | 1.41% |
| 2007 | -25.38% |
| 2008 | -32.57% |
| 2009 | 52.39% |
| 2010 | -0.61% |
| 2011 | -2.40% |
| 2012 | 7.32% |
| 2013 | 8.98% |
| 2014 | -0.36% |
| 2015 | 11.32% |
| 2016 | 23.24% |
| 2017 | -0.86% |
| 2018 | 16.97% |
| 2019 | 15.38% |
| 2020 | 23.07% |
| 2021 | 31.72% |
| 2022 | 29.25% |
| 2023 | 23.01% |
| 2024 | -4.79% |
| Average | 12.07% |
| % gain | 67% |
Fueling the bullish setup ahead of third-quarter earnings is the growing conviction in AMD's AI trajectory.
Last month, Bank of America analyst Vivek Arya raised AMD's 12-month price target to $300 from $250, reflecting a 13% upside from current levels.
Arya said AMD now has “greater visibility for the ramp/deployment of MI450 rack ‘Helios’,” following the 2025 Open Compute Project (OCP) conference in San Jose.
Those Helios racks—AI hardware stacks built around AMD's Instinct MI450 GPUs—are set to launch in the second half of 2026, with Oracle already planning a 50,000-GPU cluster rollout.
AMD's racks use open designs favored by cloud giants like Meta and OpenAI. Based on conservative forecasts, Arya sees AMD capturing more than 5% of the AI accelerator market by 2027, up from 3-4% previously.
Under a full OpenAI deployment scenario of 6 gigawatts over four years, Arya estimates 2027 EPS could hit $10-11, with potential to rise above $15 by 2030.
Arya estimates AMD could command 5.4% of the AI accelerator market by 2027, up from prior estimates of 3–4%. A full-scale 100% OpenAI deployment could push AMD's share closer to 7.5%. These estimates are set against a backdrop of a $430 billion AI market in 2027.
After Tuesday’s earnings report, investors will closely watch AMD's Analyst Day on Nov. 11 for further clarity on growth strategy, roadmap updates, and guidance around AI product lines.
Despite trailing Nvidia Corp. (NASDAQ:NVDA) in AI GPU dominance, AMD has emerged as a credible second source for hyperscalers looking to diversify supply chains.
With strong earnings expectations, explosive November seasonality, and rising AI exposure, AMD appears well-positioned for a breakout month—assuming Tuesday's numbers deliver.
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